Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $53,981$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,579.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(53,579.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,843$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(832 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,599.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,599.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,201$ on 2020-05-13

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,691$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,085.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(220,085.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,104$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,996.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,996.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,764$ on 2020-05-13

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $222,104$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217,243.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,106$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,354.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,457$ on 2020-05-13

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $230,985$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,421.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,264$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,059.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,059.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $196,689$ on 2020-05-13

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $178,184$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,817.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(177,817.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,077$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,173.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,173.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,321$ on 2020-05-13

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,909$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,043.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,043.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,460$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,528.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,478$ on 2020-05-13

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,410$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,337.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,337.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,581$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,531.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,531.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,672$ on 2020-05-13

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,401$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,617.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,617.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,497$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(81.4 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,557.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,557.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,434$ on 2020-05-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 94%
Switzerland recovered 90%
Austria recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 77%
Germany recovered 76%
Andorra recovered 73%
Slovakia recovered 63%
Denmark recovered 62%
Lithuania recovered 48%
Czechia recovered 46%
Spain recovered 40%
Italy recovered 28%
Serbia recovered 20%
Hungary recovered 12%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(434 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-13

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,904$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(773 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,755.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,755.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(18.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $172$ on 2020-05-13

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,413$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,624.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,624.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,870$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,839.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,839.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,443$ on 2020-05-13

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,997$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,326.3}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,326.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $624$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(94.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{621.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(621.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,069$ on 2020-05-13