Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $53,981$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,579.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(53,579.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,843$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(832 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,599.4}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,599.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,201$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,691$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,085.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(220,085.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,104$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(4.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,996.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(25,996.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $60,764$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,104$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217,243.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,106$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,354.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,457$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $230,985$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,421.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,264$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,059.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,059.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $196,689$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $178,184$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,817.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(177,817.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,077$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,173.8}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,173.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $92,321$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,909$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,043.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,043.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,460$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,528.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,478$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,410$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,337.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,337.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,581$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,531.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,531.4\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,672$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,401$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,617.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,617.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,497$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(81.4 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,557.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,557.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,434$ on 2020-05-13